News & views.
A collection of stories about data, public opinion and politics and news about our firm.
Phone versus online and other considerations: A primer on nonprobability surveys.
You can't make smart decisions on messaging or campaign strategy if the data you're basing those decisions on isn't accurate.
An Unforced Error in the San Francisco Mayor's Race
What should you do when you're attacked? It's a question every political campaign has to prepare for. Our recommendation: don't draw attention to an attack few voters have noticed.
The Power of Mary Meeker's Internet Trends Report
We love diving into Kleiner Perkins' Internet Trends report, prepared each year by venture capital legend Mary Meeker. Without fail, the report is full of insights into how society is grappling with technological change.
Trust in Polling
If there's any remaining confusion about what happened with election polling in the 2016 presidential campaign, the Pew Research Center clears it up in this 6-minute video. The key takeaways: while national polls were very accurate, state polls largely missed a late swing to Donald Trump and underrepresented people without college educations.
Is Facebook Better Off Regulated?
With every new revelation about how Facebook has failed to shepherd its users’ data, Americans’ feelings toward the company have become a bit more chilly.
Rebuilding Trust in Government
As a nation, we are often reminded of and criticized for our low level of trust in government. Looking at our history, this trust deficit should come as no surprise: skepticism of a strong central government is hard-wired into our national culture.
Running for office in 2018? Look to New Orleans and LaToya Cantrell for lessons
Where should an insurgent candidate look for guidance on running a strong campaign? We suggest New Orleans, and the playbook of LaToya Cantrell, the city’s mayor-elect. In a city which had never elected a woman mayor, Cantrell won the 18-way October primary by 9 points and the November run-off by 20. How’d she do it? By blending old and new communications techniques. By rooting her campaign in voters’ values. By spending carefully. These are timely lessons for Democrats across the country.
Making Sense of the Facebook – Cambridge Analytica Saga
As Max Read argues in an incisive New York Magazine piece: "Facebook was being used as it's designed, and that's the problem." Facebook made it remarkably easy to obtain information about its users, who have limited knowledge of what is happening.
Can Public Service Be Good Politics Again?
Can a call to public service once again make for good politics? Not since President Kennedy in 1960 has a national candidate put service and civic responsibility at the strategic core of a campaign. Savvy candidates in both parties should consider doing so in 2018 and 2020.
A New Mayor for New Orleans
The most effective campaigns seamlessly blend data, digital and grassroots strategies. We are proud to have been a part of one which ended Saturday: the race for Mayor of New Orleans.
Harvard Study on Partisanship, Propaganda and Disinformation
One interesting finding is that the coordinated right-wing media ecosystem successfully communicated a consistent story — and ultimately influenced the campaign. The study’s authors write that “both candidates got critical coverage but Trump had issues and he had scandals; with Clinton it was only scandals.”
Introducing Lighthouse
Lighthouse compares a company's strengths with the public's priorities to clarify the landscape of opportunities and risks.
Big Data: Promise and Challenges
The best research combines qualitative and quantitative analysis. Quantitative analysis informs powerful decision-making models, but when you combine it with qualitative analysis, you get depth, context and richer, more actionable analysis.
Virginia, New Jersey and Trumpism
Overreach. A phenomenon so common it can be confused for a physical law of politics. It's a point Democrats should remember as they celebrate sweeping wins in NJ and VA on November 7.
Hudson Pacific Featured in the Times-Picayune
Cantrell hired a data research and strategy firm, Hudson Pacific, to compile analytical information. The firm’s website describes its work as ‘Moneyball, not gut feel,’ referring to the data-driven strategy that has transformed Major League Baseball as detailed in Michael Lewis’ book and a subsequent movie.
Pollster Stan Greenberg Stirs the Pot
While many of you may be ready to move past the 2016 election, there’s much to learn from the strategies that worked (and those that didn’t).
Dominant Regional Cultures Explain Our Voting Behaviors and Attitudes
If you're looking for a way to gain an understanding of what's going on in society, politics and culture at a more foundational level (and who isn't these days?), we highly recommend American Nations: A History of the of the Eleven Rival Regional Cultures of North America by Colin Woodward (2011).
“I want to go to the great battlefields of Hue.”
Lamb: “How long will you stay [in Vietnam]?” Caro: I don’t know. That I can’t tell. We stayed in the Hill Country until I felt I could write about the Hill Country…”
Does President Trump Have a Denominator Problem?
We have long been suspicious of the resiliency of President Trump's support among Republicans, hypothesizing that it might indicate a denominator problem. That is, his support may appear stronger that it is because the number of people identifying as Republicans may be shrinking.