News & views.

A collection of stories about data, public opinion and politics and news about our firm.


Our most basic needs
Campaign Strategy Andrew Sullivan Campaign Strategy Andrew Sullivan

Our most basic needs

American psychologist Abraham Maslow saw humans’ needs arranged like a pyramid, from basic survival at the base—food, safety, and stability—to higher-order aspirations like respect and freedom. Trump’s campaign capitalized on voters’ immediate, existential concerns at the hierarchy’s foundation: economic security, personal safety, and jobs.

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Lessons from a California land-grab
Campaign Strategy Andrew Sullivan Campaign Strategy Andrew Sullivan

Lessons from a California land-grab

Razor-sharp reporter Gil Duran has a must-read article on the "bumbling and villainous" effort to build a new city in rural California. The effort would be laughable—and not just for its name, California Forever, which Duran likens to a celebrity cemetery—if it weren't a possible beachhead for a libertarian movement to create "network states" outside the reach of democratic nation-states.

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2024 and the Essence of President Biden
Campaign Strategy Andrew Sullivan Campaign Strategy Andrew Sullivan

2024 and the Essence of President Biden

A great deal has been made of how difficult it will be for Trump wannabes like Senator Tom Cotton or former Governor Nikki Haley to energize Republicans the way the former president did in 2016 and 2020. Less attention has been paid to President Biden and the winning coalition he built last year. That should change.

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A Provocative Take on Swing Voters
Opinion Research, Campaign Strategy Andrew Sullivan Opinion Research, Campaign Strategy Andrew Sullivan

A Provocative Take on Swing Voters

The conventional view of the American electorate and presidential campaigns is that roughly 55 percent of eligible voters turn out to vote and that election winners are determined by the 15 percent of "swing voters" who switch between parties. This is an outdated, Beltway-centric view, according to Bitecofer in a recent Politico profile.

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Asking the right question in 2020
Campaign Strategy Andrew Sullivan Campaign Strategy Andrew Sullivan

Asking the right question in 2020

There are two ways to remove a sitting president, an election or impeachment. The latter is getting all of the attention at the moment, but given the current “red wall” in the U.S. Senate, that option does not look very likely, so let’s step back and take a sober look at one simple question we all should be asking ourselves over the next 13 months. Does Donald Trump deserve re-election?

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Navigating the 2020 Democratic Primary Landscape
Campaign Strategy Andrew Sullivan Campaign Strategy Andrew Sullivan

Navigating the 2020 Democratic Primary Landscape

You’re the campaign manager for one of the Democratic candidates for president. You’ve called an end-of-summer strategy retreat for your top advisors. As your colleagues gather, you sit down to sketch your view of the landscape, with five months until the Iowa Caucus. The stakes are high, so take a deep breath. Here are a few points to keep the group focused on what counts.

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