Asking the right question in 2020
There are two ways to remove a sitting president, an election or impeachment. The latter is getting all of the attention at the moment, but given the current “red wall” in the U.S. Senate, that option does not look very likely, so let’s step back and take a sober look at one simple question we all should be asking ourselves over the next 13 months.
Does Donald Trump deserve re-election?
In 1980, Ronald Reagan built a campaign around a simple, thought-provoking question: are you better off than you were four years ago?
The political landscape was economic malaise and the perception of diminishing American power abroad. Most Americans answered no, setting the stage for Reagan’s win over President Carter and eight years in the White House.
Reagan’s question points to a fundamental rule of opinion research: asking the right question is all about stimulating a thoughtful answer, not getting the answer you want to hear.
Does Donald Trump deserve re-election? It is similarly thought provoking, concise and the question every candidate — Republican or Democrat – running against President Trump should be asking because the question:
Puts the focus squarely on the President. More than any president in modern history, President Trump has made the presidency about him, both symbolically and functionally. The election should be wholly about him as well. No doubt President Trump will attempt to make it about the eventual Democratic nominee. Questioning whether he deserves reelection can quickly neutralize that misdirection and put the focus back him.
Narrows the focus to re-election. As a nation, we give our presidents the opportunity to be elected to two full terms in office. Despite our recent history of two-term presidents, it is not a guarantee but a privilege one has to earn.
Emphasizes a weighty word: deserve. The Oxford English Dictionary defines the word “deserve” as “do something or have or show qualities worthy of reward or punishment.” Has President Trump earned re-election? Does this man deserve to lead us as a nation and represent you and your fellow Americans to the rest of the world?
Encourages contemplation. It’s neither aggressive nor accusatory and thus doesn’t back voters into a corner. Since President Trump was elected, we have been putting his voters on the defensive, serving only to solidify their support for him. Think for a moment. Have you ever settled a dispute by putting someone on the defensive?
Keeps it simple. Americans elect people, not policies. The question doesn’t get bogged down in the policy wonkery we currently see in the debates among aspiring Democratic candidates. The deeper in the weeds we get on policy matters, the more we miss the central question of whether he deserves to be re-elected.
Considers the totality of his leadership. Posing this question encourages voters to think about the totality of President Trump’s leadership, looking past daily chaos cycle of cable television news and social media.
Reminds voters of their rights and responsibilities as citizens. These include participation in our electoral process. As I’ve heard people say in focus groups time and time again, “it’s up to us.”
Respects the individual’s right to vote without dictating how they should vote. Another thing I’ve heard loud and clear from voters in recent focus groups: “We’re adults. We can make informed decisions without being told what to do.” In fact, in telling them what to do, you run the risk the outcome is the opposite of what you desire.
As someone who has conducted public opinion research for over 30 years, this is also a standard public opinion polling question. Traditionally, it is paired with the alternative choice “or is it time to give another person the chance to do a better job,” but asking only the first half, and inviting a yes or no response, is equally acceptable.
No, this question won’t turn around Trump’s base and get them to vote for someone new. It’s pretty clear now that they are happy with their choice, and they’re sticking with him. However, it is a question that swing voters and independents likely will take to heart when they’re making their choice for president in 2020.
It’s the right question to ask. We should ask it of ourselves and of our fellow citizens and trust them to come up with the right answer. In my experience, if you ask people a serious, direct, fair and respectful question, people will give it the serious consideration it deserves and answer accordingly. That’s all we can ask.