It’s all about turnout now

David wrote a pair of articles early this summer on the factors likely to shape the presidential election and how polling fits into the broader discourse. While the landscape has shifted in seismic ways since we published, the core message remains vital: polling and turnout are two separate things, and turnout is the biggest unknown at this point. Keep an eye on questions measuring enthusiasm for the candidates and the money and organization that converts that energy into votes.

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Voting our way into a housing crisis

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A plague of cheap polls—and its consequences