Political Overreach and the Virginia Governor's Race

Overreach. A phenomenon so predictable it should be considered a physical law of politics. What causes it? One common factor is misreading election results.

In 2017, we warned Democrats against extrapolating too much from sweeping wins in New Jersey and Virginia. Today, the political tables have turned but our warning is unchanged. Political observers widely assume that parents frustrated by school closures helped swing the Virginia governor's race to Republicans. Analysis by TargetSmart, however, suggests otherwise. County-level data shows no correlation between school closures and vote swings to Republicans. In fact, the ten counties with the most days spent in virtual learning saw a lower-than-state-average swing to Republicans.

Beware of conventional wisdom built on one election cycle or impulsive media interpretations. These are trap doors to political overreach.