A Provocative Take on Swing Voters

We are intrigued by the ideas put forward by Rachel Bitecofer, a political scientist at Christopher Newport University who is arguing for a re-think of American voting patterns.

The conventional view of the American electorate and presidential campaigns is that roughly 55 percent of eligible voters turn out to vote and that election winners are determined by the 15 percent of "swing voters" who switch between parties. This is an outdated, Beltway-centric view, according to Bitecofer in a recent Politico profile.

In her view, the actual percentage of swing voters is closer to 6 or 7 percent. That larger group, Bitecofer says, are “closet partisans” who don’t identify with a party but still vote with one. The remaining 6 percent or so of true independents, she says, tend to vote for whoever promises a break with the status quo.

She also believes voters are more motivated to defeat the other side than by policy goals. This is the theory of "negative partisanship," and it's the basis for her argument that the Democrats 2018 House takeover had less to do with the party's focus on protecting health care than simply opposing the party in control of the White House.