Successful campaigns define clear, emotionally resonant narratives. For Republicans, cultural grievance and preserving the status quo were central themes. These narratives tapped into fear and frustration with societal and economic change.

We wrote last summer that while Roe v. Wade might not have been settled law, it was indeed settled public opinion, with decades of broad and stable support. Admittedly, we took a wait-and-see attitude on the impact of the Dobbs decision on the midterms, but as devotees of behavioral economists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, we should have known better.

The ever-incisive reporter and political strategist Gil Duran points out that Boudin was a scapegoat for a complex set of problems cities across the country are confronting. His recall reflects San Franciscans' anger over homelessness, mental illness and visible poverty – but not their opposition to justice system reform.