News & views.
A collection of stories about data, public opinion and politics and news about our firm.
Underestimating Joe Biden
Underestimating President Biden is one of the most important features of American politics today. You cannot understand his presidency or the 2024 campaign without accounting for it.
Polling's Dramatic Evolution
A new Pew Research Center study shows a strikingly fast-paced evolution in how public opinion research is conducted.
The Why of the Midterms — and What's to Come
We wrote last summer that while Roe v. Wade might not have been settled law, it was indeed settled public opinion, with decades of broad and stable support. Admittedly, we took a wait-and-see attitude on the impact of the Dobbs decision on the midterms, but as devotees of behavioral economists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, we should have known better.
The Election Prediction Fallacy
We are seeing the McNamara Fallacy at work in the media-based election prediction industry, presently focused on the midterms. A basic problem is that opinion polls are not designed to predict things, they are designed to give a snapshot of opinion at a moment in time. A larger problem involves the many difficult-to-measure variables shaping today's political context, from a society-altering global pandemic to a seismic partisan realignment reshaping both political parties. Old models for understanding politics, like the paramount importance of presidential approval on midterm outcomes, may not hold. The bottom line is this: we do not know what is going to happen, and we have to get comfortable with uncertainty.
Progressive DAs and a San Francisco Misread
The ever-incisive reporter and political strategist Gil Duran points out that Boudin was a scapegoat for a complex set of problems cities across the country are confronting. His recall reflects San Franciscans' anger over homelessness, mental illness and visible poverty – but not their opposition to justice system reform.
A Rare Opportunity for Bipartisan Action
We're proud to help lead a growing, bipartisan campaign to reform the industry in the interest of public health, the environment and job creation. Reach out if you're interested in learning about the strange bedfellows strategy at the heart of the effort.
Communicating in a Time Like No Other
We’ve compiled a checklist of questions for engaging the public in our present, chaotic era.
An Antidote to Misinformation
One insidious aspect of misinformation is that it makes it harder for society to deal with already-tough problems.
Political Overreach and the Virginia Governor's Race
Overreach. A phenomenon so predictable it should be considered a physical law of politics. What causes it? One common factor is misreading election results.
Our Latest Favorite Podcasts
Podcasting's golden age has continued through the pandemic. Seventy-eight percent of Americans are familiar with podcasting – up from 22 percent in 2006 – and more than 40 percent of Americans report having listened to a podcast in the past month.
New Jersey pollster: Maybe it's time to get rid of election polls
As a firm that puts research at the center of everything we do, we have occasionally surprised clients and friends by arguing for an end to public horse race polling.
Four more years for New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell
It affirms one's belief in democracy when voters reward public officials for leading with character and making decisions without regard for political cost. Such is the case for New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell, who was re-elected last month with a solid 65 percent of the vote.
The New York City Mayor's Race and Ranked Choice Chaos
It's been more than two weeks since New York City Democrats voted for mayor, but only last night did the AP called the primary election for Brooklyn Borough President Eric Adams. We are very proud to have worked for Ray McGuire, the business leader turned candidate who put jobs and the city's economy at the center of the public debate.
A Healthy Democracy Should Reward Tough Calls
Consider as a counterpoint Liz Cheney, ousted by her peers from a Republican leadership role in the House of Representatives. We will be watching her re-election with a keen eye, hoping Wyoming voters reward her tough call and leadership.
2024 and the Essence of President Biden
A great deal has been made of how difficult it will be for Trump wannabes like Senator Tom Cotton or former Governor Nikki Haley to energize Republicans the way the former president did in 2016 and 2020. Less attention has been paid to President Biden and the winning coalition he built last year. That should change.
What 2020 Teaches Us for 2021
We are fast approaching a full year of living with a global pandemic. A year full of disruption and tragedy — but also change. Our lives have changed in profound ways, and so has our politics and the ways we communicate. This is our effort at taking stock of this change. It’s our effort at making sense of 2020 and extracting lessons as we turn the page to a new chapter of the American experience.