News & views.
A collection of stories about data, public opinion and politics and news about our firm.
A New French Export: Thoughtful Perspective on Horse Race Polling
Last month Le Parisien decided to follow Gallup’s lead, focusing on in-depth reporting of the public mood and political candidates’ policy platforms. It’s big news because Le Parisien is famous for covering the horse race, and France has one of the highest rates of political opinion polling in the world.
No Labels Poll: Americans Demand Bipartisan Approach from Congress and Trump Administration
New research on the American public’s policy priorities for the new Congress and incoming Trump administration finds overwhelming support for bipartisan solutions in general and for healthcare in particular.
Killing trust in America
In an era of historically low trust in public institutions, grappling with this cynicism is among the most significant challenges any public leader – in business, government or otherwise – is facing today.
Re-thinking Election Forecasting Based on Horse Race Polls
In the aftermath of Trump’s win on Tuesday, it’s time for a serious re-think of election forecasting that relies too heavily on horse race polling.
Persuasion in Presidential Politics (and Business)
Psychology teaches us that we both embrace information that reinforces our own point of view (confirmation bias) and explain away information that undermines our identity or sense of self (self-affirmation theory). If you feel that your friend isn’t really absorbing your arguments on Facebook, you are right!
Building Government Trust
The business-government relationship is in a moment of high anxiety. And it’s not just the Brexit-to-Trump rise in protectionism; it’s the recent bout of corporate scandal, from Wells Fargo and its Cross-Selling Practices to Deutsche Bank and Mirror Trading, among other examples. This backdrop makes it difficult for business leaders to establish long-term, trustful relationships with government. But, the effort is important and now more so than ever before.
Why Intensity of Opinion is a Key Metric to Watch in the 2016 Homestretch
Intensity of opinion is even more important in public affairs campaigning than in the presidential election. Being able to identify your base of support and those who are persuadable on an issue is critical to the success of your effort.
Introducing Hudson Pacific: Data-Driven Public Affairs
We have formed this firm with a single goal in mind: to help our clients win. It may sound simple, but it’s a critical point, and something we consider a guiding principle: we succeed when our clients succeed.
How Do We Know? The Value of a Data-driven public Affairs Strategy
Without a foundation of data-driven insights to support our recommendations, we are only as good as our next brilliant idea. That’s not to minimize the importance of great ideas, but they are much more likely to achieve desired outcomes when built upon objective research.
Bridging the Gap: Public Affairs and Business Goals
We offer this analogy in closing: think of public affairs work as a political campaign on behalf of a company or organization. The most effective public affairs professionals bring the urgency, rigor and focus of a campaign to your company’s issue. They convert data about the public into a coherent strategy and encourage the message discipline needed to achieve business goals. And they always put the client’s needs first.
Horse Race Polling: Resist the Sweet Treat
Our point here is that the most meaningful presidential polling has nothing to do with the horse race. The most meaningful polling involves efforts to understand the values underpinning voter attitudes and converting them into a coherent campaign strategy. Why? Because in contrast to preference for a candidate, people’s values are unlikely to change over the course of a campaign.
Directing Moneyball Public Affairs Campaigns
The public affairs industry is dominated by old-school consultants who base their counsel on gut instinct or trade on relationships. We have more data and computing power at our fingertips to inform smart decisions than ever before, yet the industry resists a Moneyball upgrade. It’s a confounding situation.
Moneyball Public Affairs
As once was the case in baseball, the public affairs industry is dominated by old-school consultants who base their counsel on gut instinct or trade on relationships. A recommendation that client engagements should be built on a foundation of data is often met with blank stares. “What could a poll tell us that we don’t already know about a client’s situation?” But without evidence, how do you know your advice is sound?