What 2020 Teaches Us for 2021

Research and Communications Lessons from a Time of Momentous Change

By David Iannelli, Amber Ott and Andrew Sullivan

We are fast approaching a full year of living with a global pandemic. A year full of disruption and tragedy — but also change. Our lives have changed in profound ways, and so has our politics and the ways we communicate. This is our effort at taking stock of this change. It’s our effort at making sense of 2020 and extracting lessons as we turn the page to a new chapter of the American experience.

We’ll start with a few thoughts on public opinion research, something we believe is critical to an organization’s strategic vision.

Research Takeaways

Polling in 2020 was complicated, but analysts and media are using it wrong

As we saw in 2016 and 2018, polling was pretty accurate at the national level this election cycle. There were some misses though in swing states, although the problems weren’t uniform. Trump overperformed the polls considerably more in Wisconsin than in Minnesota, for instance.

But we have to remember that when elections are close, as they are likely to be in this polarized era, polls can’t provide us with a definitive answer of who is going to win. Most elections will fall within the margin of error.

But public opinion shouldn’t be used that way in any case. The news media and pundits can be rather careless in how it talks about the results of political polls, focusing on the horse race and not what’s motivating potential voters, which reflects poorly on the public opinion research industry and casts doubt on one of the best tools we have to help understand what the public wants from its leaders.

Research experts shouldn’t cede their voices

For the second presidential cycle in a row, public opinion research experts have handed their product over to news organizations only to be criticized by those very same people who tend to misrepresent or mischaracterize the results and the process.

We would all be better off if pollsters — whose clients rely on them for insights — also present their findings to journalists and leave journalists to what they do best: follow up and ask questions. CBS News took a step in this direction this cycle giving their investment in polling the time and attention it deserves via Anthony Salvanto.

Diversify your research portfolio to reduce risk

Using quantitative research, qualitative research or social media analytics in isolation risks an incomplete picture of public opinion. Surveys provide quantitative validation but don’t always deliver on depth and context. Many were surprised by the growth in minority support for Trump in 2020, but qualitative research might have uncovered which groups were echoing what the former President was saying about his opponents bringing chaos, violence and socialism to the country.

The opposite is true for focus groups; great for depth and context, but by definition they are anecdotal. After being surprised by the 2016 election, some news organizations made an effort to report “real Americans’” perspectives, but claiming they represent all “swing voters,” in one example is misleading.

For the same reason, social media analytics cannot be representative. Roughly 30 percent of Americans don’t have a single social media account, but ignoring social media activity can leave you oblivious to social riptides.

When employing two or better yet, three methods in concert, the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. The results provide the breadth, depth, texture and color that inform more thoughtful strategy.

Communications Takeaways

Communications, not catharsis

We cautioned in a 2017 Dallas Morning News op-ed that overwrought, judgmental criticism of Donald Trump could unintentionally bolster his support. Despite their best intentions, some of the never-Trump campaign organizations may have done just that in 2020. Their ads were very well done and seem to have been effective at getting under Donald Trump’s skin and revving up the anti-Trump base. But how successful were they in converting persuadable voters?

One study conducted by Priorities USA suggests the ads fell short of their intended objective of turning battleground state Republicans into Biden voters.

Other never-Trump organizations took another tack. They balanced critical ads with positive reinforcement or aspirational messages about past leaders. Sure, the hard-edged anti-Trump ads made the base feel good, but the softer approach did a better job speaking to the desired audience in 2020 — with the right message and messenger.

Fear works

If the last four years have taught us one thing, it is that fear motivates people to act. What’s troubling is that much of the fear mongering of late is based on false information. Issues like widely debunked claims of election fraud and exaggeration of violence in cities play into people’s fears and take attention away from the greatest threats to society like climate change and growing income inequality.

We need to elevate the conversation on important issues that matter, otherwise, we’ll be ill-prepared to deal with the most threatening problems on the horizon. We are encouraged by Vanderbilt University’s new project on Unity & American Democracy — an effort to elevate the role of research and evidence-based reasoning in public discourse.

Looking Ahead…

Unknowns will continue to dominate

Things change. We tend to look to the future assuming the world around us will remain static. We only have to look to 2020 as proof that human beings are not very good at anticipating the unexpected. Of course, that hasn’t been the case for the past year (at least), both domestic and international, it likely will change. To date the biggest challenges President Biden faces are getting COVID-19 under control and the economy back on track. That’s all anyone is talking about right now when it comes to how the Biden Administration will be judged, but that doesn’t even take into account the “known unknowns” or the “unknown unknowns.” The test for them will be not only how they handle the “known knowns,” but how they handle the “known unknowns” and the “unknown unknowns.”

2022 will be as hotly contested as 2020

The outcome of the 2020 elections was mixed for the two parties. Democrats won the White House by defeating an incumbent Republican in an Electoral College system that still favors the Republican candidate. That said, it was closer than a poorly-managed pandemic and a badly struggling economy suggests it should have been.

Democrats won three statewide races in Georgia in two months-time, capturing control of the Senate by the slimmest of margins. Republicans gained seats in the House of Representatives, narrowing Democratic control. Republicans continue to have the edge in the state-level redistricting processes that will in statehouses across the country.

With a divided nation and narrow Democratic control of both houses of Congress, it seemed that it wouldn’t take much to tip the scales in favor of Republicans in 2022. But that was a few weeks ago. Since then, the question has shifted from “how will President Biden and Nancy Pelosi manage the progressive wing of the party” to “will the Trump-wing maintain its hold over the Republican Party?”

Even though the public yearns for unity, partisan divisions aren’t going away anytime soon, and the two parties will struggle to gain control for the foreseeable future.

Focus on what matters most

In the movie City Slickers, the late Jack Palance’s character Curly shares his secret to life with Mitch played by Billy Crystal. “One thing. Just one thing. Stick to that and everything else don’t mean…” Listening and discovering what matters most to your customer or voter — even family member — isn’t sexy or revolutionary, but it’s efficient and effective.

More than once we’ve stood in front of a client and shared what seemed such an obvious insight that we feared getting laughed out of the room. Most of the time, the insight pertains to a core competency they have drifted away from, distracted by a new, shiny opportunity or a “soft” goal that doesn’t directly address their core business. Whether you think of it as back to basics, sticking to one’s knitting or Curly’s “one thing,” it’s all the same. Focus on what matters most to your customers or constituents and your organization will thrive.

Use research strategically, early and often

First, be prepared. It’s the norm, not the exception to hear a new crisis client say, “I wish I had some way of knowing the impact X event had on our reputation.” If you don’t have a baseline measure against which to gauge changes in opinion about your organization, get one. Someday, you’ll be glad you did.

Second, use public opinion research for the right reasons — to assess the current situation then to inform strategy, prioritization and resource allocation, not to predict an outcome.

Third, public opinion is not a one-and-done thing. Instead, it should be part of regular process to measure the impact of the strategy or strategies implemented. Follow these three guidelines and your organization will be equipped to make well-informed decisions as well as measure change.