News & views.
A collection of stories about data, public opinion and politics and news about our firm.
Issue priorities reflect deeper values
Our analysis revealed that:
Inflation and housing costs—the most critical concerns across all voters—reinforced Trump's message of restoring economic security.
Crime and immigration played into Trump's emphasis on personal safety and border control.
Reproductive rights remained secondary to economic stability for most voters.
Using AI to escape conspiracy rabbit holes
A new study published in Science offers a promising insight into how artificial intelligence might foster a more constructive civic discourse. The research shows that personalized dialogues with AI can reduce belief in conspiracy theories, which are generally viewed as resistant to fact-based counterarguments.
Communicating about climate: The challenge of changing public opinion
A new report from Stanford University and Resources for the Future dives deeply into Americans' views on climate change. While 75 percent of Americans acknowledge that the earth has been warming over the past century, this figure is down from 83 percent in 2020—reflecting a subtle shift in public perception. Overall, attitudes on climate have been remarkably stable.
A plague of cheap polls—and its consequences
Each election cycle brings a new wave of firms touting proprietary methods and low-cost accuracy, but these promises often fall short, raising warning signs for anyone relying on the data.
Reforming America's Olympic & Paralympic Movement
The U.S. Congress created in 2020 a bipartisan commission on the state of U.S. Olympics and Paralympics (CSUSOP). The goal: reimagine the governance system for the kaleidoscopic (and scandal-plagued) array of organizations within the Olympic movement.
Where have you gone, Greatest Generation?
We're fascinated by a paper published last fall that studies the decline in support for democracy in the United States between 1995 to 2019. The results show a clear pattern of generational decline, with each successive birth cohort since the 1940s being less supportive of democracy than the previous one.
Public Opinion and the Future of AI
Americans' darkening view of AI is important because public opinion will affect how policymakers shape the regulatory landscape.
Polling's Dramatic Evolution
A new Pew Research Center study shows a strikingly fast-paced evolution in how public opinion research is conducted.
Debating the Decline of American Values
A new opinion survey from the Wall Street Journal and the University of Chicago has set off a debate over the state of our national character. The poll suggests patriotism is fading in America, with a drop of nearly 30 points in the number of Americans who say patriotism is very important to them.
The Election Prediction Fallacy
We are seeing the McNamara Fallacy at work in the media-based election prediction industry, presently focused on the midterms. A basic problem is that opinion polls are not designed to predict things, they are designed to give a snapshot of opinion at a moment in time. A larger problem involves the many difficult-to-measure variables shaping today's political context, from a society-altering global pandemic to a seismic partisan realignment reshaping both political parties. Old models for understanding politics, like the paramount importance of presidential approval on midterm outcomes, may not hold. The bottom line is this: we do not know what is going to happen, and we have to get comfortable with uncertainty.
Listening Matters
A civic engagement group called NYC Speaks conducted this spring what may be the most extensive policy survey in New York City history. It's an inspired effort to lead by first understanding what people care and worry about, and we hope other public leaders take note.
How Business Leaders Can Navigate Roe and Other Matters
Our view is simple: when you see a gap between public opinion and government action – even when the gap is not as stark as the below graphic – step into that void. That's a safe space to raise your voice.
The Stark Gap Between the Supreme Court and the American Public on Abortion
The vast gap between the two positions points to a Republican position on abortion that is not just out of step with public opinion, it’s diametrically opposed to it.
Peloton and the Power of Asking Questions
To understand someone's values and priorities, you have to ask the right questions.
New Jersey pollster: Maybe it's time to get rid of election polls
As a firm that puts research at the center of everything we do, we have occasionally surprised clients and friends by arguing for an end to public horse race polling.
Americans agree to disagree
The Pew Research Center has released an update to its political typology study, a long-running effort to define distinct groups within the American electorate.
A West Texas Roadmap for Mitigating the Impacts of Energy Development
If Americans are going to make a dent in reducing carbon emissions — and polling suggests they want to — they are going to have to grapple with the tradeoffs required. An effort in West Texas offers a roadmap for helping people work through the issues.