2024 Election Analysis
Groundhog Day
The more things change , the more it’s déjà vu all over again
As we have endeavored to provide you – our clients and friends – with a unique take on the 2024 election, different from all the 24-hour news channels, print journalists, political podcasts and pundits, it dawned on us how little the context has changed since we delivered our political analysis almost exactly two years ago in advance of the midterm elections. So similar in fact, that it feels like we’ve been here before.
It conjures up the cult classic, Groundhog Day, during which Bill Murray is trapped in a time loop, destined to live February 2 over and over again. We too seem stuck in some less humorous political purgatory.
Two years ago, we cautioned you to “beware of anyone who tells you they know what the outcome of the midterm elections will be.” There were simply too many unknowns, suggesting anyone selling certainty was simply wearing their confirmation bias on their sleeve.
The analysis here dives into the issues that matter today and gives you a cheat sheet for tracking election results. Our goal is to go beyond punditry and give you tools to understand how the election is unfolding—with a sharp eye on the swing states that will determine the Electoral College winner.
Factors shaping the election resemble 2022
Donald Trump
He remains the Republican Party’s greatest asset and liability.
Flooding the zone with $h*t
In Steve Bannon’s words, this continues to be the strategy of Donald Trump and his team as they work to undermine trust and faith in American institutions.
The Supreme Court
The court persists as a flash point on the issue of women’s reproductive rights, and questions about some justices’ ethics have made the makeup of the court an even more salient issue.
Women
They remain the most motivated voting block, an equal and opposite reaction to the Dobbs decision and the ensuing havoc wrought by state legislatures, primarily in, but not limited to, the South.
Legal Jeopardy
Legal challenges continue to shadow Donald Trump, so we should not underestimate what he will do to win.
Democracy Under Threat
Attorneys general across the country are determined to restrict access to voting.
Disinformation
It runs rampant on social media and has become more even more widespread in recent weeks as Elon Musk as doubled down on his support for Donald Trump.
What we are paying attention to right now
1. Enthusiasm
A recent NBC News poll showed lower enthusiasm compared with the same time four years ago, but it also showed Democrats with a 10-point advantage over Republicans.
2. Money
Per FEC reporting, Harris raised $222M to Trump’s $63M in September and began October with more cash available to spend – $187M compared with $119M.
3. Organization
The Harris-Walz campaign, and the Biden-Harris campaign before it, built a field operation of supporters; Trump-Vance has outsourced its field operation.
4. Resource Allocation
Where candidates are spending their time and buying or cancelling ads can speaks volumes about where they are up or down.
5. turnout
The previously mentioned advantages on enthusiasm, money, organization and resource allocation drive turnout and will make the difference in this election.
Foreign & Security Policy Perspectives
Insights from our thought partner:
The world is watching this election.
A prolonged or contested presidential election would shake the confidence of U.S. allies and further embolden adversaries to act with less fear of consequences.
1
Intensifying global conflicts & threats
Ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are increasing global instability. Simultaneously, asymmetric threats, like cyberattacks, terrorism and sabotage are on the rise.
2
U.S.-China decoupling
The political and economic gulf between Washington and Beijing is deepening, with tensions over foreign investment, sensitive technology and China’s growing bellicosity.
3
Rising power of transnational criminal organizations
Criminal networks in Latin America are growing stronger, threatening regional stability if future U.S. administrations fail to develop a strategy that goes beyond border security.
4
A disengaged or indecisive stance weakens deterrence
The power of American deterrence will weaken further if Washington does not assert itself as a global leader. A disengaged or indecisive U.S. foreign policy will generate greater geopolitical risk.
If you have questions about this analysis or would like to learn more about it, please contact David Iannelli.